“Tonight’s forecast, dark, continued dark tonight, turning to partly light in the morning.”
, George Carlin
We recently revisited our IRONPROS construction technology predictions for 2023, and analyzed how accurate or inaccurate they were, with the help of market experts and stakeholders.
A handful of industry experts and executives gave us fair reviews for accuracy, citing their own actions in the course of the year that align with the predictions. Asphalt Contractor Editor Brandon Noel however worked us over for neglecting to mention artificial intelligence, however.
Our goal with making these predictions is not to prove how clever we are, but rather to acknowledge how little we know, cognizant of our lack of any kind of crystal ball or exclusive prophetic vision. What this means is that these predictions are not designed to be shocking or surprising. They are designed to be painfully obvious, in the best way, in the tradition of Robert Updegraff’s Obvious Adams.
The more construction software products we research, the more executives we talk to, and the more contractors we spend time with, the more it becomes clear what is in fact obvious. So IRONRPOS does have this advantage, and can confidently lay out broad trends.
More of the Same
Our predictions for 2023 met this test of obviousness, tempered by our ongoing research, and will continue to be obvious heading into 2024. These include:
1. Market Consolidation. Yes, new startups continue to come to market, but as long as they are venture-funded, we will likely see these companies headed towards liquidity events, and those liquidity events will more often be acquisitions as opposed to initial public offerings. Market forces including desire to consolidate vendors and microeconomic benefits including shared distribution suggest contractors and project teams evaluating software will want to do their due diligence. Acquisition can be a net positive, or can result in a smaller company’s product being de-emphasized as part of a broader portfolio. Software that is more modern and open to integrations, with a unique value proposition and a strong product-market fit will fare better after acquisition than others. Mature products, too, will be acquired as larger vendors seek to strengthen their footprint in construction.
2. Construction Technology Interoperability. Because construction projects are typically executed not by a single corporate entity but by several—owners, generals, subcontractors and other vendors—processes critical to success must be handed off seamlessly between different organizations. This means requests for information, change orders, applications for payment, certificates of insurance, work-in-progress (WIP) reporting, lien waivers, amendments to contract terms and more are all making the transition in many projects into multi-company digital workflows. Technology to collaborate on construction processes across organizational boundaries will see market development.
3. Technology Coming to the Field. Technology for the back office of construction has had to grow in power and meet contractors’ project management and project accounting needs. But where we will see growth in 2023 is in the extension of more transformational technology into more project sites by more contractors.
New 2024 Construction Technology Predictions
1. The hype cycle for AI in construction and other industries will crest. As we discussed in a recent brain dump with Asphalt Contractor Editor Brandon Noel, AI has been in construction long before Chat GPT seized the public imagination. Large language models have some value for the industry, but we expect algorithm-driven parametric AI to be more important and come into its own in 2024 and beyond. We discuss this in this video conversation with Asphalt Technology Editor Brandon Noel.
2. Innovations will turn into product categories. As transformational technologies make their way to construction, we have seen software and hardware tools that can help contractors complete work in novel new ways, eliminating manual processes or transforming how projects are designed, built and operated over their lifecycle. These category-busting products have come to market, and next we will see competitors emerge and square off against them, creating new construction technology product categories.
2024 in Construction Technology
In 2024, IRONPROS expects we’ll see continuing market consolidation among emerging and established construction technology vendors. Vendors and project teams will continue to invest in interoperability between different products used on a project. More advanced technology will extend to the field, again, a continuation of pre-existing trends.
In 2024 we’ll also see the current construction AI craze settling down into a more reasonable and grounded level of interest in the technology’s true potential. And we will need to recognize new product categories as genuine, groundbreaking innovations face emerging competitors.
