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The Dodge Momentum Index fell 4% in November to 171.7 (2000=100) — down from the revised October reading of 178.1. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Construction Network, is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. In November, commercial planning fell 8% while institutional planning moved 5% higher.
The value of nonresidential building projects continues to move in a sawtooth pattern, alternating between a month of gains followed by a loss. Since the pandemic began, nonresidential building projects entering planning have been more volatile than in past cycles, likely driven by increased challenges from higher prices and lack of labor.
A total of 10 projects with a value of $100 million or more entered planning in November. The leading commercial projects were a $240 million Seefried Industrial Properties warehouse in Mesa, AZ, and a $158 million Prologis warehouse in Lebanon, TN. The leading institutional projects were the $450 million Wake Forest Baptist Medical Center in Winston-Salem, NC, and the $241 million Hoboken High School in Hoboken, NJ.
Planning data continues to suggest a healthy level of construction to come in 2022. However, due to higher prices and shortages of labor, actual growth is expected to be modest. The new Omicron variant for COVID-19, and its potential impact on economic growth, highlights the tremendous uncertainly the construction sector will face over the coming year.