Associated Builders and Contractors today reported a small boost in the country's construction backlog, which is a slight increase from March. The indicator is down slightly year-over-year. Prices are also up, 0.5% in April, according to its analysis of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index data.
Construction Backlog
Associated Builders and Contractors
Main takeaways include:
- The Construction Backlog Indicator increased to 8.4 months in April, according to an ABC member survey conducted April 22 to May 6. The reading is down 0.5 months from April 2023, but expanded 0.2 months from the prior month.
- Backlog declined on a monthly basis for the largest and smallest contractors by revenue and grew for those with $30-$50 million and $50-$100 million in annual revenues. On an annual basis, only contractors with $30-$50 million in annual revenues have experienced an increase in backlog.
- ABC’s Construction Confidence Index readings for sales and profit margins fell slightly in April, while the reading for staffing levels improved. All three readings remain above the threshold of 50, indicating expectations for growth over the next six months.
“The Federal Reserve began ratcheting up interest rates more than two years ago, but one would not know it based on construction confidence and backlog,” said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. “ABC measurements reflect ongoing momentum in the nation’s nonresidential construction sector. While there are occasional hints of softness in certain segments and over certain periods, the average contractor continues to report solid backlog and a belief that sales, employment and profit margins will expand over the next six months.
“Coming into the year, many expected that interest rates would fall markedly in 2024," Basu said. "Given stubbornly elevated inflation, that will not occur. Project financing costs are poised to remain higher for longer. Project cancellations and postponements have been on the rise. Moreover, a new set of supply chain issues has emerged, driving up materials costs and prospectively weakening industry margins. Workers also are becoming more expensive, in part because the construction wage premium has shrunk over the past several years due to rapidly rising compensation levels in competing segments like logistics and retail. The implication is that construction compensation levels will need to rise for the industry to be able to staff up more fully."
Construction Prices
Construction input prices increased 0.5% in April compared to the previous month, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index data released today. Nonresidential construction input prices increased 0.6% for the month.
Overall construction input prices are 2.3% higher than a year ago, while nonresidential construction input prices are 2.2% higher. Prices increased in 2 of the 3 energy subcategories last month. Crude petroleum prices were up 10.6%, while unprocessed energy materials prices increased 8.2%. Natural gas prices were down slightly by 0.9%.
“Construction input prices jumped half a percentage point higher in April and have increased 3.5% over the first four months of the year,” said Basu. “While iron, steel, asphalt and gypsum product prices fell in April, oil and copper prices surged, driving the monthly increase. Rising input prices will put pressure on profits at a time when nearly 1 in 4 contractors expect their margins to contract over the next two quarters, according to ABC’s Construction Confidence Index.”
“Perhaps more importantly for contractors, the overall Producer Price Index reading for final demand goods and services increased 0.5% in April,” said Basu. “This is yet another sign that inflation is accelerating and suggests that interest rates are set to stay higher for longer.”
Read more at www.abc.org.
